Can Sen. Santorum Survive?

From The Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal:

The latest polls show the race tightening. An independent Quinnipiac University survey released on Aug. 15 had Mr. Casey ahead 48% to 42% among likely voters. The same poll showed him with a 52% to 34% lead in late June. A further concern for the challenger is that his negatives among likely voters have risen as he's allowed the senator to define him.

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Six points is a sizable deficit for the incumbent to close inside of three months, though the senator certainly has the money, savvy and party unity to give it a go. Mr. Santorum, who's held the seat since 1994, has never won more than 52% of the vote in a Senate race, and he's sailing into what appears to be a strong anti-incumbent headwind this year. Mr. Casey has done an effective job of making the race a referendum on Mr. Santorum, whose vocal social conservatism--he opposes abortion, gay marriage and embryonic stem cell research--has made him a whipping boy of the local and national liberal press.

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Another arguable misstep was publishing a controversial book last year when he was sizing up a White House run. Mr. Santorum is a conservative Catholic, and his biggest political liability may be the perception that he's some kind of theocrat. Releasing a manifesto on how government can be used to propagate Christian moral values has only reinforced that negative image. And it's unlikely to help him with moderate Republican voters in those all-important collar counties of Philadelphia come November.

Among the handful of Upper Chamber Republicans facing difficult races this year, however, a Rick Santorum loss easily would be the most damaging to political conservatives. Mr. Santorum, the No. 3 man in the Senate, is much more than a reliable vote for lower taxes and a strong national defense. He's also been a true reformer who's often willing to champion unpopular causes. Sen. Santorum floor managed the welfare-reform bill that turned 10-years-old this week. He's backed medical savings accounts and pushed for Social Security personal retirement accounts long before George W. Bush. That takes chutzpah for a senator from a state with a higher percentage of senior citizens than anywhere but Florida.

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Previous Pro Ecclesia posts on this subject:
Poll Shows Pennsylvania Senate Race Narrowing

Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 52% Santorum (R) 37%

Rick Santorum: "The Great Test of This Generation"

Catholic Social Issues at the Fore in Election Debate

Pennsylvania Senate: Santorum Still Way Behind

Rick Santorum Wows Crowd With Hillary Clinton Abortion Story

Bob Casey, Jr. - The Apple Who Fell Far From the Tree

Rick Santorum Blasted for Taking Part in Justice Sunday III

Santorum's Take on Lawrence v. Texas Proves Prophetic

Alito And Casey On Abortion

Rick Santorum's Brand of Conservatism: the Family, Not the Individual, is Paramount

A Conservative Vision of Social Justice