Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Poll Shows Pennsylvania Senate Race Narrowing

From Associated Press via the Las Vegas Sun:
MANNS CHOICE, Pa. (AP) - Democrat Bob Casey is holding onto his lead over Republican Sen. Rick Santorum in one of the nation's hottest Senate races, despite the recent appearance of a Green Party candidate who is considered a spoiler for Casey, a poll released Tuesday shows.

The poll also shows, though, that Santorum has narrowed the gap from an 18-point difference in June.

In a three-way contest, the new poll found Casey leading Santorum 45 percent to 39 percent, with Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli picking up 5 percent. Eleven percent said they were undecided or did not plan to vote, according to the Quinnipiac University poll.

As a two-way race, without Romanelli, 47 percent of the same respondents favored Casey to 40 percent for Santorum, with 13 percent undecided or expressing another opinion.

The results of the poll, based on telephone interviews with 1,384 Pennsylvania registered voters from Aug. 8 through Monday, carry a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The June poll showing Casey leading Santorum by 18 points, 52 percent to 34 percent, was also conducted by Quinnipiac University.

My Comments:
With the Green candidate in the race, Casey holds a 6-point lead; with the Green candidate not in the race, Casey holds a 7-point lead. Statistically insignificant.

In other words, the Green candidate has absolutely nothing to do with Santorum's recent closing of Casey's double-digit lead in the polls.


At 8/15/2006 9:20 PM, Blogger Paul, just this guy, you know? said...

Allowing for margin of error, media bias, and the tendency for Republicans to pick up votes later in the game, I think my January prediction is looking pretty good about no.

At 8/17/2006 3:32 PM, Blogger Fidei Defensor said...

Of course the liberals will blame the green candidate rather than give Rick any credit. 1% don't mean much but I'm still glad it's there, any nick in Casey's armor is good.


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