Dave Hartline on "Sen. Obama's European Victory Lap"
posted by Pro Ecclesia 8:03 AM
7 comments
Monday, July 28, 2008
About Me
- Name: Pro Ecclesia
- Location: Ohio, United States
A convert to the Catholic Church who became Catholic because of a belief in and devotion to the Real Presence of Jesus Christ in the Eucharist. * A graduate of Baylor University and the University of Virginia School of Law. * Former Mayor of the Town of Columbia, Virginia. * Married with four children: two boys and two girls. * Primary interests include the Catholic Church, family, Early American History, and law/politics * Primary purpose of this blog is fostering enlightened discussion about the roles played by the institutions of religion, family, and state in our daily lives. * Under the protection of St. Thomas More, martyr, and patron of lawyers, judges, civil servants, politicians, statesmen, and large families (not to mention troubled marriages).
Thomas More, counselor of law and patron of statesmen, merry martyr and most human of saints:
Pray that, for the glory of God and in the pursuit of His justice, I may be able in argument, accurate in analysis, keen in study, correct in conclusion, loyal to clients, honest with all, courteous to adversaries, trustworthy with confidences, courageous in court. Sit with me at my desk and listen with me to my clients' tales. Read with me in my library and stand always beside me so that today I shall not, to win a point, lose my soul.
Pray that my family may find in me what yours found in you: friendship and courage, cheerfulness and charity, diligence in duties, counsel in adversity, patience in pain -- their good servant, and God's first. AMEN.
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Dear Scholar and Martyr, it was not the King of England but you who were the true Defender of the Faith. Like Christ unjustly condemned, neither promises nor threats could make you accept a civil ruler as head of the Christian Church.
Perfect in your honesty and love of truth, grant that lawyers and judges may imitate you and achieve true justice for all people. AMEN.
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"Give me the Grace Good Lord, to set the world at naught; to set my mind fast upon Thee and not to hang upon the blast of men's mouths. To be content to be solitary. Not to long for worldly company but utterly to cast off the world and rid my mind of the business thereof."
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Litany of St. Thomas More, Martyr and Patron Saint of Statesmen, Politicians and Lawyers
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"The ordinary acts we practice every day at home are of more importance to the soul than their simplicity might suggest."
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7 Comments:
It was such a turnoff that Gallup has Obama up by 9 now.
I'd have to agree with Dave, but it's only my opinion.
Now for discalcedyooper insight it doesn't look at all good for McCain. I do know that these voting samples are skewed toward registered democrats, ie, more dems than republicans are asked for whom they'll vote. With that said, nine points is A LOT of ground to make up, but it's only July.
We'll see what happens in November.
Don't pay attention to the polls until Labor Day. They'll change a dozen times before then.
We'll have the convention bounce, the other convention bounce, the debate bounces, the bounce was smaller than expected bounce for the other guy. It's all crap 'til September.
Don't put much credence in polls presently, but you should pay attention. Tito is correct that polling this year has been difficult due to shaping the sample adjustments that are made. Harline could be right about Iowa. Rasmussen, which has shown Obama's support to be pretty weak all along, shows in its latest poll a 10 point advantage for Obama in Ohio. This is of course good for McCain, because I'm not familiar with a scenario this year where McCain wins if he loses Ohio.
For what it's worth, Rasmussen's most recent poll today shows the Europe bounce has dissipated and has Sen. Obama back down to a 3-point lead over Sen. McCain.
Notwithstanding that tidbit, I generally eschew poll watching because I think polls are utterly useless at predicting the ultimate outcome of the November election.
About the only thing polls are useful for is giving an idea of overall trends. And one thing we DO know about summer polls is that they almost ALWAYS overcount the support that will be received by the Democrat candidate. Given that polls this far out generally show the Democrat with more support than he will actually receive, and given that polls are consistently showing Obama's lead as somewhere in the 3-5 point range, and given that this election year OUGHT to be a slam-dunk for the Dems, if I were a supporter of Sen. Obama, I would be at least a little troubled by the trend the polls are showing.
USA\Gallup has McCain up by four among likely voters with the poll taken over the weekend. http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/07/gallupusa_today_poll_mccain_4.html
Summer polls are usually worthless, but the current ones do seem to indicate that only the Gallup tracking poll is seeing Obama benefiting from his European tour.
Following up on Don's post, Jim Geraghty notes the incongruity between 2 of Gallup's own polls:
The Gallup tracking poll has Obama up, 48 percent to 40 percent. Bounce! Surge! Here comes the Obama tsunami!
But Gallup's latest non-tracking poll out today:
"Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight."
But that poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, which would have been after the Germany speech and presumably included some of the Berlin bounce, Maliki comments, etc. And my sense was that weekend polls generally were worse for Republican candidates.
So McCain is either trailing like he's never trailed before, or he's gained 10 points in the past month to retake the lead. This is one of the reasons I'm writing less about swings in the polls.
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