Monday, July 28, 2008

Dave Hartline on "Sen. Obama's European Victory Lap"

Dave Hartline writes at The Catholic Report that Sen. Obama's basking in the adulation of our more enlightened European betters is "a turnoff for heartland voters".

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At 7/28/2008 9:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It was such a turnoff that Gallup has Obama up by 9 now.

At 7/28/2008 9:46 AM, Blogger Tito Edwards said...

I'd have to agree with Dave, but it's only my opinion.

Now for discalcedyooper insight it doesn't look at all good for McCain. I do know that these voting samples are skewed toward registered democrats, ie, more dems than republicans are asked for whom they'll vote. With that said, nine points is A LOT of ground to make up, but it's only July.

We'll see what happens in November.

At 7/28/2008 9:52 AM, Anonymous Steve said...

Don't pay attention to the polls until Labor Day. They'll change a dozen times before then.

We'll have the convention bounce, the other convention bounce, the debate bounces, the bounce was smaller than expected bounce for the other guy. It's all crap 'til September.

At 7/28/2008 10:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't put much credence in polls presently, but you should pay attention. Tito is correct that polling this year has been difficult due to shaping the sample adjustments that are made. Harline could be right about Iowa. Rasmussen, which has shown Obama's support to be pretty weak all along, shows in its latest poll a 10 point advantage for Obama in Ohio. This is of course good for McCain, because I'm not familiar with a scenario this year where McCain wins if he loses Ohio.

At 7/28/2008 1:02 PM, Blogger Jay Anderson said...

For what it's worth, Rasmussen's most recent poll today shows the Europe bounce has dissipated and has Sen. Obama back down to a 3-point lead over Sen. McCain.

Notwithstanding that tidbit, I generally eschew poll watching because I think polls are utterly useless at predicting the ultimate outcome of the November election.

About the only thing polls are useful for is giving an idea of overall trends. And one thing we DO know about summer polls is that they almost ALWAYS overcount the support that will be received by the Democrat candidate. Given that polls this far out generally show the Democrat with more support than he will actually receive, and given that polls are consistently showing Obama's lead as somewhere in the 3-5 point range, and given that this election year OUGHT to be a slam-dunk for the Dems, if I were a supporter of Sen. Obama, I would be at least a little troubled by the trend the polls are showing.

At 7/28/2008 2:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

USA\Gallup has McCain up by four among likely voters with the poll taken over the weekend.

Summer polls are usually worthless, but the current ones do seem to indicate that only the Gallup tracking poll is seeing Obama benefiting from his European tour.

At 7/28/2008 3:38 PM, Blogger Jay Anderson said...

Following up on Don's post, Jim Geraghty notes the incongruity between 2 of Gallup's own polls:

The Gallup tracking poll has Obama up, 48 percent to 40 percent. Bounce! Surge! Here comes the Obama tsunami!

But Gallup's latest non-tracking poll out today:

"Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight."

But that poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, which would have been after the Germany speech and presumably included some of the Berlin bounce, Maliki comments, etc. And my sense was that weekend polls generally were worse for Republican candidates.

So McCain is either trailing like he's never trailed before, or he's gained 10 points in the past month to retake the lead. This is one of the reasons I'm writing less about swings in the polls.


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