Saturday, February 11, 2012

Electable: Santorum Surge Ties Him With Romney Nationally; Puts Him Ahead of Romney in MICHIGAN

Looks like the GOP may be on its way to having a new "frontrunner":
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, it was Romney 35, Gingrich 26, Santorum 17. On Wednesday and Thursday, after he hit the Missouri/Minnesota/Colorado trifecta: Santorum 30, Romney 30, Gingrich 16. And remember, there are no southern primaries between now and Super Tuesday, so if Newt’s counting on a regional split to put him back in the game, he’ll have to weather another three weeks of Santorum as the (momentary) designated Not Romney.

Key footnotes:
Most GOP primary voters — 80 percent — think someone other than frequent frontrunner Romney could still win the Republican nomination, and over half say it’s too soon for any of the current contenders to drop out (54 percent). Moreover, nearly half would still like to see someone else jump in the race (49 percent)...

Santorum (36 percent) is seen by GOP primary voters as the candidate most “in touch” with everyday Americans. That’s more than twice as many as any other Republican contender: Paul (16 percent), Romney (16 percent) and Gingrich (12 percent). Eight percent say none of the Republican candidates are in touch with voters.
[More]
At this point, there is clearly no compelling argument for Romney's nomination anymore. Sure, I suppose there are things in his favor, such as his private sector experience and his executive experience as governor, but they are no longer compelling enough to make him "inevitable". It's not clear that Santorum has attained "man to beat" status, but he seems to be on his way. And, if he beats Romney in Michigan - the state where Romney grew up and where his father was once Governor, Romney's "electability" myth will be shattered once and for all, and his candidacy will be on life support.

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2 Comments:

At 2/11/2012 11:57 AM, Blogger Catherine A. McClarey said...

And Public Policy Polling places Santorum 15 points ahead of Romney in the nomination race:

"Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP’s newest national poll. He’s at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Part of the reason for Santorum’s surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney’s favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That’s a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).

Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ he’s now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.

It used to be that Gingrich was leading with all these groups and Romney was staying competitive enough with them to hold the overall lead. No more- a consensus conservative candidate finally seems to be emerging and it’s Santorum."


http://hotair.com/archives/2012/02/11/ppp-poll-puts-santorum-in-the-lead-by-15-points-nationally/

 
At 2/11/2012 2:43 PM, Blogger Jay Anderson said...

Just saw that at Hot Air, and now have a new post up. Thanks.

 

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