Thursday, May 15, 2008

California Supreme Court Puts State In Play for McCain [UPDATED]

Details on California high court's legalization of same-sex "marriage" here.

There will be a ballot initiative to overturn the court's decision on the November ballot in California. Such an initiative to define marriage as between 1 man and 1 woman in Ohio 4 years ago helped put Bush over the top.

Regular Guy Paul makes some predictions.

UPDATE #2 (16 May)
That deflating sound you heard yesterday afternoon was all the Obamoloch Catholics saying "Awwwwww, couldn't they have waited until AFTER the election was over?"

UPDATE #3 (16 May)
Ed Morrisey agrees:
... The referendum will bring conservatives out in force this November, but it will also face a huge amount of opposition throughout the state and the intelligentsia. In truth, constitutional amendments usually make for bad policy; they act as sledgehammers when scalpels do better, and they’re difficult to reverse when necessary. Unfortunately, the court forced opponents of gay marriage into this tactic, and all will depend on whether they can get enough people to the polls.

The extent to which they do will benefit McCain without a doubt, and it could force the Democrats to spend a lot more time and money on the presidential race in the Golden State. They cannot afford to lose the massive Electoral College votes if they plan on winning the presidency. The Supreme Court probably just put California in play for the first time in 20 years.
(emphasis added)

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At 5/15/2008 2:05 PM, Blogger matthew archbold said...

completely agree, jay. And Obama came out against DOMA (Defense of Marriage Act) recently in a gay publication. That makes the sides even more easily identifiable.

At 5/15/2008 2:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is a sad day for California, I hope that thing do not get as bad in Ohio.


At 5/15/2008 5:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another case of judicial hubris and judicial bloat. One hundred and seventy-two pages?

Some day courts will learn that our most prized civil right is self-government, and that does not mean majority vote by a group of black robe wearing lawyers.

At 5/16/2008 9:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wouldn't get too excited on the political end. In Wisconsin, we had the referendum and dramatically increased college voting. Many also didn't seem to have trouble voting 'yes' to the Amendment and 'yes' to Doyle. I personally think other factors were involved, but much of the WI GOP blames the failure to win back the governorship to that question. As to the land of fruits and nuts, I think a lot of it will depend on polling. If the marriage ammendment is polling under 40% approaching election day, I don't think you will see any benefit accrue to McCain. While I haven't seen the polling, I would expect CA to be one of the places where this loses spectacularly.

At 5/16/2008 10:22 AM, Anonymous crankycon said...

I would expect CA to be one of the places where this loses spectacularly.

Not according to the commentary I've read, which suggests this could pass with about 60% of the vote. We'll see, but this will probably pass, and by a comfortable margin.

McCain was probably going to poll a lot better in California than recent GOP nominees anyway. I'm not sure this puts him over the top, but it will be a close race.

And for the record, I agree with Captain Ed on his discomfort about the ballot refferendum, but I am more skeptical of such things all around than most. It's the unfortunate conflict that is now a part of our political culture, where we pit judicial hubris vs. unrestrained plebiscitary democracy. We all lose if those are the only choices we have, no matter the issue.

At 5/16/2008 10:30 AM, Blogger Darwin said...

California already passed a ballot referendum (Prop 22) by 61% in 2000, which is the source of this case. So unless there's been a massive change in public opinion (and people aren't teed off by having their votes reversed by the state supreme court) I would imagine that the ammendment will do moderately well.

Also, McCain was polling well in CA to start with, and Obama lost it to Hillary. Obama was slated for trouble anyway, since the Hispanic vote is so big in CA, and there's historically been a lot of tension between Hispanic voters and black politicians. McCain's environmentalism will play well in CA, and leave Obama without an ability to contrast with him. And Obama's pseudo-protectionism will get him no where in a state that has boomed as a result of free trade.

Even before this came up, I would expect the gap between Obama and McCain in CA to be less than 10%.

At 5/16/2008 10:57 AM, Blogger Dale said...

I don't know that this puts California into play. Both sides are going to mobilize like gangbusters. I'll bet it passes, but with less support--probably around 56-58% support, and Obama takes the state by at least 5%.

McCain's going to do *comparatively* quite well, especially with Hispanics, but California is still very blue. W couldn't make it competitive even with a much better economy. It's still an uphill battle for McCain overall, and he'd be better advised to fight it out in purple battlegrounds, not blue.

At 5/16/2008 11:06 AM, Blogger Jay Anderson said...

The key is to make Obama work for a state that he absolutely MUST win in order to capture the White House. As Darwin points out, Hillary! beat him there, and Obama underperforms among Hispanics while McCain does comparatively well (for a Republican) among that demographic.

I agree that McCain should spend almost NO resources there, but a well-timed sidetrip during a visit to purple Nevada or purple Oregon that could get him some face-time with Hispanics and on the nightly news could make Obama sweat it out a little.

At 5/16/2008 11:16 AM, Blogger Darwin said...

One thing that would be interesting (in a politics as spectator sport kind of way) is if the west coast actually becomes semi-key in this election. Washington had an incredibly close-fought governor race last time around, with the decision by a few hundred votes, as I recall. That's another state where McCain's moderate credentials versus Obama's elite appeal will play off each other in interesting ways. Obama would have to wage a big-city-only campaign, since he won't be able to get the rural (though often democratic) constituencies.

In the end, I'd be surprised to see any of the three west coast states actually go for McCain (if any one does, we wins by a blow out, so far as I can see) but with the Obama campaign already announcing they don't need the "racist vote" in the Appelacians, and McCain being the first west-coast style GOP candidate since Reagan, Obama might have to spend time shoring up what would otherwise be sure votes out west.

This should be one interesting race...


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