Dems Are Beginning to Believe They Can't Beat John McCain [UPDATED]
How do I know that?
Because they're already getting desperate.
Here's the Democrat problem: I think Hillary's going to win BIG today in Pennsylvania. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 15-20 point victory. Although she'll probably lose in North Carolina, Hillary will nevertheless be going into the convention only slightly behind in delegates but with ALL the momentum.
Hillary's also the Dem candidate who matches up best against John McCain, especially with key groups like older voters, Hispanics, and blue-collar whites in the Midwest. Obama, on the other hand, is Adlai Stevenson to McCain's Ike - the left-liberal candidate of the intellectual class vs. the moderately conservative tried and trusted war hero. Against Obama in key Midwest swing states, McCain will likely win Missouri and Ohio and possibly Pennsylvania (unless Obama puts Casey Jr. on his ticket) and Michigan.
But the Democrats know they're stuck with Obama. There's no way they can take the nomination away from him and give it to Hillary and have their coalition survive in the long term. So, they'll nominate him even if it means sending someone against McCain who is less likely to beat him than the other candidate.
And, so, they're already showing signs of desperation. They're throwing everything they can at McCain in hopes that either something sticks or that they'll finally cross the line to such an extent that McCain will allow his famous temper to get the best of him.
The Dems are gonna get real ugly real fast. Desperation is never pretty.
Ed Morrisey dismisses the Obama-Stevenson comparison (a comparison first posited by E.J. Dionne):
... Stevenson had been governor of Illinois for a four-year term, as well as having worked in various executive-branch posts. Between 1952 and his second run in 1956, Stevenson had also traveled the world and had extensive talks with world leaders, while writing travelogues for Life.Yeah, but the Dems are pretty much stuck with him at this point.
In comparison, Obama appears even more callow. He has not traveled widely, as Stevenson (and Hillary Clinton and John McCain did). He has no executive experience at all. Obama has all of three years in Congress, completely undistinguished, following a forgettable seven-year stint in the Illinois state senate where his most notable accomplishment was dodging tough issues by voting “present”...
Dionne writes that “fighters usually beat professors”. Substance usually prevails over superficiality, too. If the Democrats don’t learn that in time for the nomination, then they’ll likely learn it in the general election, when it becomes apparent that not only is Obama no JFK, he’s not even a Stevenson.
Larry Kudlow writes at The Corner on National Review Online:
Bob Novak, the highly distinguished veteran columnist and author, told the American Spectator New York dinner group last night that John McCain will defeat Barack Obama in November’s election, although the Democrats will enhance their majorities in both the Senate and the House. Novak, who has covered elections for fifty years, speculated that McCain will pick former Ohio congressman Rob Portman (who also was President Bush’s special trade representative and OMB director) as his running mate, while Obama could choose former Sen. Sam Nunn as his.
On Portman, Novak said he’s young, will pass the conservative spell check, and can stand up in a debate. Our speaker also told us that the GOP has stumbled into the exact right candidate this year in McCain. Regarding McCain’s tax-cut proposals, Novak thinks they are real, and that cutting the corporate tax rate, as McCain has proposed, should be much more important to observers than the candidate’s occasional corporate and Wall Street bashing.
Novak also believes Obama’s gaffes about bitter small-town people who cling to guns and religion will be an absolute killer in the general election. So will the Jeremiah Wright business, and more generally Obama’s extreme, across-the-board, liberal-left positions...
UPDATE #4 (23 April)
Like I said, desperation is ugly.
Go ahead, lefties. Make an issue out of McCain's disability pension from the Navy. I want to see wet-behind-his-big-ass-ears Obama tell the American people why John McCain - who spent years being tortured in a POW camp to such an extent that he can't raise his arms above his head or even put on his own shirt without assistance - doesn't deserve his disability pay.