In '08, Rudy Could Have a Catholic Problem

National Review's Kate O'Beirne (the Fumaristas' "favorite" columnist) writes in the New York Daily News:

... Although former Mayor Rudy Giuliani also could make history, as the first Catholic nominated for President by the Republican Party, the effect of his religion has, to date, been largely ignored. It shouldn't be. Giuliani's Catholicism - and his rejection of some church teachings - could be a significant factor over the long run of the 2008 campaign.

Concerns about conflicted Catholic politicians have largely been laid to rest in recent years, ever since John F. Kennedy gave his historic 1960 speech on balancing the dictates of faith with the obligations of public office.

Giuliani's multiple marriages, his pro-choice stand on abortion and his support of gay civil unions are at odds with his church's positions - so there is no cause to worry that he would be a Catholic President taking directions from the Vatican. But for many Catholics, Giuliani's dissident views could challenge their devotion to the Republican Party.

In his 2004 race against John Kerry, the first Catholic nominee since 1960, George Bush won a majority of Catholic voters by a margin of five points - and carried Catholics who attend services weekly by 13 points. Catholics made up 27% of the electorate in 2004, and are the dominant religion in two-thirds of the presidential battleground states.

Giuliani will need those votes to win. In presidential races over the past 50 years, Republicans have repeatedly been elected thanks largely to Southerners and Catholics who abandoned their ancestral political affiliations. Many of the Catholics who were once Reagan Democrats have become reliable Republican voters in reaction to the excesses of a cultural left that is firmly rooted in the base of the modern Democratic Party.

For Giuliani, that's the rub. Polling shows that a significant percentage of Catholic Republicans share the economic views of big-government liberals rather than small-government conservatives - but many support the Republican Party owing to social issues like abortion. Last year's Senate race in Pennsylvania showed how voters can react when the candidates aren't divided over abortion: many Catholics defected from their previous support for the incumbent, enabling the pro-life Democrat, Bob Casey Jr., to defeat the pro-life Republican incumbent, Rick Santorum.

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But what's [Giuliani's] pitch to "values" voters? The GOP should be concerned that nominating a thrice-married Catholic who supports abortion rights could move many Catholics back to their ancestral political home.

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