Filibuster Prediction
I'm going to make a prediction that there will NOT be enough votes for cloture (i.e. Republicans won't be able to shut off debate) when the vote is taken at 4:30 p.m. this afternoon. Momentum seems to have shifted toward the side of those who want to filibuster the Alito nomination. Many of the Democrats who initially came out against a filibuster are now flip-flopping and signing on to the attempt to debate the Alito nomination to death.
There will probably be 59 votes for cloture - all 55 Republicans, the 3 Democrats who haves stated that they will vote for Alito, and then perhaps 1 Democrat member of the "Gang of 14" (it WON'T be Mary Landrieu who will, before the day is out, flip-flop on her opposition to the filibuster).
The Republican members of the "Gang of 14" will be outraged by this betrayal by their Democrat counterparts - who, by filibustering Alito, will have made it clear that "extraordinary circumstances" means any conservative to the right of Sandra Day O'Connor - and will vote for the so-called "nuclear option" to end the unconstitutional judicial filibuster once and for all. Alito will eventually be confirmed with 57 votes.
Republicans will again make the judiciary and Democrat obstruction of judicial nominees the centerpiece of their Senate election efforts, making 2006 a reprise of the Senate elections in 2002 and 2004. Republicans will have a net pickup of 1 seat in the Senate, giving them a 56-43-1 majority.
George W. Bush, emboldened by the pickup of another Senate seat, will nominate 2 conservative judges from the 5th Circuit - Chief Judge Edith Jones and Judge Emilio Garza - to replace retiring Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and John Paul Stevens. Both judges will be confirmed with 55 and 65 votes, respectively. David Souter will soon follow Ginsburg and Stevens out the door, to go live in a log cabin in the woods after his New Hampshire home is taken to make way for a Kelo-style development. President Bush will replace him with Judge Janice Rogers Brown, who will be confirmed with 52 votes.
posted by Pro Ecclesia 10:56 AM
8 comments
8 Comments:
As you have written, so let it be done!
Dang, Jay. That sounds pretty good. I second that emotion!
The moonbats have their work cut out for them since it won't be easy to get forty-one votes (which is about the most that the can get* if they don't flip one or more of the pro-Alito Dems).
As to Garza, I've heard that the White House has ruled him out because he has skeletons in the closet.
*Isn't Kent Conrad leaning towards voting not only for cloture but for confirmation?
I've heard the "skeletons" rumor about Emilio Garza. But short of Miguel Estrada, he's the best of the bunch should Bush want to nominate a Hispanic to the Court.
Miguel Estrada has been through a lot over the last few years (in addition to having his nomination filibustered to death, his wife passed away), so I'm not sure he'd accept a nomination to the Court. But I'd love it if Bush would nominate him.
As for Conrad, I understand that, following a pro-Alito ad blitz in his home state over the last few days, he has said that he is leaning toward supporting Alito.
I am less pessimistic. There are enough Democrats seeking reelection in red states to make this untenable for them.
Sure the ones appealing to Kos kids will.
Though again appealing to political intelligence of Democrats is an easy way to make bad predictions.
I do wish they would try such a boneheaded move and it would be nice to see if the Republican senators spine are made of sterner material than Jello. But this is another subject that can lead to bad predictions.
Sounds a bit too detailed to be acurate... If your right tonight, I will jump on your bandwagon. Although it sounds good, another senate seat would be nice.
"Sounds a bit too detailed to be acurate... "
;)
I'll be the first to admit I'm not that good at prognostication. This is more of a wish list than anything else.
But I thought your wish wouldn't come true if you announced it?
It would be nice if it happened. I would love to see the dems look stupid (again).
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