Bob Novak: Replacing O'Connor Could Get Ugly

Bob Novak speculates on President Bush's possible nominee to replace Sandra Day O'Connor:

With Senate confirmation of Judge John G. Roberts Jr. as chief justice virtually assured, the struggle for the Supreme Court returns to replacing retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. The belief in legal and political circles is that President Bush will name a conservative woman, and the front-runner is federal Appellate Judge Priscilla Owen (5th Circuit, Austin, Texas).

According to White House sources, Bush met secretly with Owen last week. While not decisive evidence, this was no mere get-acquainted session beginning a long exploration. He knows and admires his fellow Texas Republican. The countervailing political pressure on Bush is to name a Hispanic American, and Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is a Texas Republican the president knows and likes even better than he does Owen. But signals last week he might name Gonzales probably should not be taken seriously.

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Owen is viewed as the strongest choice and, at age 50, able to guarantee a conservative court for 20 years. She was a petroleum industry lawyer in 1994 when Republicans tapped her to run for the Texas Supreme Court. She and Bush, candidate for Texas governor, sometimes campaigned together, with Karl Rove their mutual consultant. Owen was considered non-controversial when Bush selected her for the appeals court in 2001, but a wide-ranging Democratic filibuster delayed her confirmation for four years.

If Owen is nominated a month from now, she will have had little more than four months on the federal appellate bench. But that is twice as much appellate time as Justice David Souter had before going on the Supreme Court. Approved only 55 to 43 for the 5th Circuit, Owen would face bitter opposition for the higher court. But so would any of the other conservative women acceptable to Bush.

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Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, relentlessly leading the Democratic campaign, last week tied John Roberts' ''advice'' as a young aide to disparities between rich and poor that he said were revealed by Hurricane Katrina. If Kennedy goes that far on a nominee whose confirmation is not really in doubt, imagine what he might say about Priscilla Owen.